Bold Diversion
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 105
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-08-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 12/09/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |