Goodbye Note
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 96
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 05/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 15/03/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 11/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 29/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 23/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |