J D Factor
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 96
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
85%
Place Prob
70%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 05/02/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/5 | 98% | 50% | -0.48 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |