4
Leonids
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 91
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength57%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 28/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 20/09/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 01/11/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 16/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |