1
Surprise Package
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 88
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
1/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength97%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 28/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |