5
Winter's Ghost
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 79
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 27% | -0.46 |
| 19/03/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 02/04/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 19/04/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 18/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 43% | -0.51 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |