3
Caseofthemondays
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 84
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 06/02/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 14/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |