Lundi Loot

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 88

Delaware Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

59%

Place Prob

46%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength23%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: -0.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-20	Colonial Downs	?	6th	8th	−2	1.6
2026-07-31	Delaware Park	?	5th	6th	−1	3.8
2026-07-23	Colonial Downs	?	2nd	4th	−2	5.6
2026-07-10	Colonial Downs	?	5th	4th	+1	5.6
2026-06-21	Laurel Park	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-06-06	Delaware Park	?	5th	4th	+1	5.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength52%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
21/03/2026	5th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37
26/04/2026	4th	10/1	47%	25%	-0.22
21/05/2026	2nd	11/4	86%	80%	-0.06
06/06/2026	5th	16/1	16%	56%	+0.40
21/06/2026	5th	4/1	79%	20%	-0.59
10/07/2026	5th	7/1	63%	20%	-0.43
23/07/2026	2nd	11/10	94%	75%	-0.19
31/07/2026	5th	7/2	82%	33%	-0.48
20/08/2026	6th	14/1	26%	29%	+0.02