Chappelle

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 84

Delaware Park · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

83%

Place Prob

56%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-20	Colonial Downs	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-01-24	Fair Grounds	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2025-12-27	Fair Grounds	?	2nd	-1th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -41.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
27/12/2025	2nd	7/2	82%	83%	+0.02
24/01/2026	3rd	15/8	90%	60%	-0.30
20/08/2026	7th	4/5	96%	14%	-0.81