Happy Tears
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 88
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-16 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-01-06 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2023-08-18 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2023-07-08 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2023-05-29 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -19.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2023 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 08/07/2023 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 18/08/2023 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 06/01/2024 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 16/03/2024 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |