5
Rebellution
3yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 56
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
Delivery trend +10.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 01/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 15/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |