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America First

3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 74

Greyville · Tote For The Win Maiden Plate (F & M) · 1m 209y

#6

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fourth of 8 in maiden at Greyville (8f, good to soft, 20/1) 48 days ago. Not taken lightly.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Scottsville 05/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR - · 5f212y GS 1325/04C8C8 @ Greyville 27/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Std 13227/05C8C8 @ Greyville 20/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 7f210y GS 12520/06C8C8 @ Scottsville 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 1328/07C8C8 @ Greyville 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 7f210y GS 1267/08C8projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-07Greyville?4th4th0
2026-07-08Scottsville?4th4th0
2026-06-20Greyville?8th8th0
2026-05-27Greyville?7th7th0
2026-04-05Scottsville?12th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0427/0520/068/077/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/202612th22/10%27%+0.27
27/05/20267th33/10%33%+0.33
20/06/20268th16/116%36%+0.21
08/07/20264th25/10%63%+0.63
07/08/20264th22/10%57%+0.57