5
Cali Bullet
4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 51
Greyville · Tote For The Win Maiden Plate (F & M) · 1m 209y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Greyville | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Greyville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Scottsville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Scottsville | ? | 8th | 4th | +4 |
| 2026-05-30 | Greyville | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Greyville | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength91%
Delivery trend +7.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 13% | -0.66 |
| 11/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 30/05/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 27% | -0.15 |
| 28/06/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |