2
Chaos Queen
4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 56
Greyville · Tote For The Win Maiden Plate (F & M) · 1m 209y
#4
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Greyville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Greyville | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Greyville | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Scottsville | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Greyville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Greyville | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength55%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 05/04/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 20/05/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 22/07/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 33% | -0.09 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.29 |