IvyArcIvyArc
4

Lilbitofmonica

3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 68

Greyville · Tote For The Win Maiden Plate (F & M) · 1m 209y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

13/2, second of 8 in maiden at Greyville (9.9f, good to soft) 20 days ago. Makes all weather debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 7.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Scottsville 18/02/2026 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR - · 5f103y GS 13218/02C8C8 @ Greyville 24/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y GS 13224/04C8C8 @ Scottsville 28/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 12328/06C8C8 @ Scottsville 08/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 1328/07C8C8 @ Scottsville 29/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 12329/07C8C8 @ Greyville 04/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m1f208y GS 1204/09C8projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Greyville?2nd2nd0
2026-07-29Scottsville?5th5th0
2026-07-08Scottsville?8th8th0
2026-06-28Scottsville?11th11th0
2026-04-24Greyville?6th6th0
2026-02-18Scottsville?15th15th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0224/0428/068/0729/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength56%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/02/202615th80/10%7%+0.07
24/04/20266th80/10%50%+0.50
28/06/202611th50/10%0%0.00
08/07/20268th80/10%13%+0.13
29/07/20265th40/10%50%+0.50
04/09/20262nd6/168%86%+0.17