6
National Dream
8yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 45
Greyville · Celebrating South African Heritage Apprentice D Stakes · 1m 209y
#2
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Greyville | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Greyville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Greyville | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Scottsville | 5 | 14th | 15th | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Greyville | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Greyville | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 18/01/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 08/07/2026 | 14th | 10/1 | 47% | 7% | -0.40 |
| 07/08/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 27% | +0.22 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 11/09/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 11% | -0.57 |