4
Ragnar The King
5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 58
Greyville · Celebrating South African Heritage Apprentice D Stakes · 1m 209y
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Greyville | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Greyville | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Scottsville | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Scottsville | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Greyville | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Scottsville | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength93%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 25/01/2026 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 31% | -0.35 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 93% | +0.40 |
| 10/06/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 36% | -0.45 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 29/07/2026 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 21% | -0.21 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |