10
Record High
5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 52
Greyville · Celebrating South African Heritage Apprentice D Stakes · 1m 209y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Greyville | 5 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Scottsville | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Greyville | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Greyville | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-23 | Greyville | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-31 | Greyville | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength60%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 07/11/2025 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 09/12/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 31/12/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 23/02/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 55% | -0.32 |
| 29/03/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |
| 06/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |
| 28/08/2026 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |