7
The Wolf
5yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 66
Greyville · Celebrating South African Heritage Apprentice D Stakes · 1m 209y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength52%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Greyville | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Greyville | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Greyville | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-06 | Greyville | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Greyville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Greyville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 28/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 31/12/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 27/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 70% | -0.16 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 11/09/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |