1
Vencedor
5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 66
Greyville · Celebrating South African Heritage Apprentice D Stakes · 1m 209y
#3
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Greyville | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Scottsville | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Greyville | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Scottsville | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Greyville | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Scottsville | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 26/12/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 25/01/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 15/02/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 30% | -0.41 |
| 29/03/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 26/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 93% | +0.22 |