5

Captain's Jet

4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 61

Greyville · Join The Vibe! www.socialsquad.co.za Class 5 (F & M) · 7f 210y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Blinkered for 1st time, sixth of 9 in handicap at Fairview (8f, 10/1) 55 days ago. First run for yard after leaving K. Mitchley. Others more persuasive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move1
Strength21%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Kenilworth 04/05/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 1324/05C8C8 @ Scottsville 23/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 5f103y 132C8 @ Greyville 07/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 1297/11C84 @ Scottsville 14/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 1m154y GS 116 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Greyville 31/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 7f210y Std 12831/125C6 @ Fairview 29/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 6f211y Std 125C7 @ Fairview 24/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f211y Std 13224/06C7C6 @ Fairview 31/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Std 12231/07C6projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Fairview?6th8th1
2026-06-24Fairview?10th12th2
2026-05-29Fairview?9th11th1
2025-12-31Greyville52nd2nd0
2025-12-14Scottsville48th7th+1
2025-11-07Greyville?1st5th3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0514/1224/0631/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength48%

Delivery trend -5.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/05/202513th50/10%8%+0.08
23/07/20258th80/10%46%+0.46
07/11/20251st11/142%100%+0.58
14/12/20258th9/153%36%-0.16
31/12/20252nd18/15%90%+0.85
29/05/20269th12/137%20%-0.17
24/06/202610th20/10%18%+0.18
31/07/20266th8/158%38%-0.20