1
Hearts On Fire
5yo Mare · 9-3 · OR 63
Greyville · Join The Vibe! www.socialsquad.co.za Class 5 (F & M) · 7f 210y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.9
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Greyville | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Greyville | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Greyville | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Greyville | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Greyville | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Scottsville | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 31/12/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 23/02/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/03/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 27/03/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 27/05/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 22/06/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 88% | +0.45 |