10
One Path
5yo Mare · 9-11 · OR 68
Greyville · Join The Vibe! www.socialsquad.co.za Class 5 (F & M) · 7f 210y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength60%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Greyville | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Greyville | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Greyville | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Scottsville | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-12-09 | Greyville | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Greyville | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/05/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 04/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 91% | +0.05 |
| 22/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 09/12/2025 | 8th | 15/8 | 90% | 13% | -0.78 |
| 29/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 03/06/2026 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 10% | -0.53 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |