8
Chara Sands
8yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 83
Greyville · Live It. Love It. Own It. www.racecoast.co.za C Stakes · 4f 214y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
90%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Scottsville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Greyville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Greyville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Greyville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Greyville | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Greyville | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 28/12/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 18/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 27/02/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 22/03/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |