3
Hammer Blow
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 44
Greyville · Live It. Love It. Own It. www.racecoast.co.za C Stakes · 4f 214y
#6
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲3
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Vaal | ? | 4th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-07-30 | Vaal | ? | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-06-25 | Vaal | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-26 | Vaal | ? | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-14 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Vaal | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 04/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |