5
Ruby Rising
5yo Mare · 9-1 · OR 75
Greyville · Live It. Love It. Own It. www.racecoast.co.za C Stakes · 4f 214y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength55%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Greyville | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Scottsville | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Greyville | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Greyville | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Scottsville | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Scottsville | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength45%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 11% | -0.52 |
| 18/11/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 18/02/2026 | 15th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/03/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 17/06/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 28/08/2026 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |