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7

Poursomesugaronme

7yo Mare · 9-10 · OR 67

Greyville · Lucky Fish Monopoly Live Apprentice Class 5 (F & M) · 5f 212y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

4-time course winner. Eighth of 12 in minor event at this C&D (AW, 50/1) 13 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Greyville 17/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS17/0444 @ Greyville 13/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 5f212y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 27/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS27/0544 @ Greyville 10/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 04/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS4/0744 @ Scottsville 02/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Greyville 14/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 13714/085C5 @ Scottsville 30/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 139 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Greyville 11/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y Std 138 · HIGHER CLASS11/09C5projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Greyville?8th7th+1
2026-08-30Scottsville?6th5th+1
2026-08-14Greyville56th6th0
2026-08-02Scottsville45th4th+1
2026-07-04Greyville48th7th+1
2026-06-10Greyville42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0410/0614/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength65%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/04/20268th28/10%30%+0.30
13/05/20264th12/137%50%+0.13
27/05/20263rd15/261%75%+0.14
10/06/20262nd15/261%86%+0.25
04/07/20268th20/10%30%+0.30
02/08/20265th11/142%50%+0.08
14/08/20266th4/179%38%-0.41
30/08/20266th14/126%29%+0.02
11/09/20268th33/10%36%+0.36