5
Royal Crest
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 62
Greyville · Bet With Tote www.tote.co.za Class 4 (F & M) · 5f 212y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲3
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Greyville | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Scottsville | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Greyville | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-04-26 | Scottsville | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Greyville | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Scottsville | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength75%
Delivery trend -7.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 01/03/2026 | 2nd | 80/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.47 |
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 09/08/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 20% | -0.22 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |