Beautiful Ester

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 50

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼2

Strength76%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.6

Today:

Class gap: +1.9

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-18	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-07-29	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0
2026-07-11	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0
2026-05-07	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +33.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
07/05/2026	6th	7/2	82%	29%	-0.53
11/07/2026	7th	12/1	37%	33%	-0.04
29/07/2026	7th	33/1	0%	45%	+0.45
18/08/2026	4th	16/1	16%	57%	+0.41