5
Higher Wish
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 51
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
40%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength66%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-06-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength57%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 09/10/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 43% | -0.45 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 11/09/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |