This Little Light

3yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 58

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼2

Strength76%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.6

Today:

Class gap: +1.9

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-15	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0
2026-08-13	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-11	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2026-06-22	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
22/06/2026	6th	20/1	0%	38%	+0.38
11/07/2026	5th	16/1	16%	20%	+0.04
13/08/2026	5th	33/1	0%	56%	+0.56
15/09/2026	4th	16/1	16%	57%	+0.41