4
Catatonic
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 81
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
94%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength68%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-11-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-10-02 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-09-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength54%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 31/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 21/08/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 02/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 11/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |