Cavatelli
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 77
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-03-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +9.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 22% | -0.41 |
| 08/02/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 36% | -0.35 |
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 90% | +0.02 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 21/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 27/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |