5
Lalily
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 69
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-05-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 22/03/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 23/04/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 19/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 07/06/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 14/07/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 04/09/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |