5
Inflammabelle
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 69
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength42%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-01-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength11%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 12/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 06/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 26/11/2025 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 17/12/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 07/01/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 70% | -0.01 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/09/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |