Lone Return
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 66
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-11-02 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Hawthorne | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/07/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 24/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 24/08/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/09/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 16/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 02/11/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 19/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |