4
Madferit
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 84
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -11.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 21/01/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 28/03/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 02/09/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |