5
Polar Drift
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 77
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 16/09/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 07/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 08/09/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |