3
Star Promise
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 77
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength29%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 10th | 2/1 | 89% | 18% | -0.71 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 23/06/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 22/08/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |