4
Vienna Charm
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 79
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 14/06/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 04/07/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 22/08/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 36% | -0.43 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |