Egyptian Candy
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 84
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 6.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-04-18 | Keeneland | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2025-03-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 22/11/2024 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/01/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 22/03/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 45% | -0.18 |
| 18/04/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 03/01/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 21/03/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 29/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |