Miss Macy
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 80
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-11-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-10-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 02/02/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 73% | -0.06 |
| 07/03/2025 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 21/10/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 12/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 15/03/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 30/04/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |