1
Night Kiss
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 92
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
69%
Place Prob
56%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 05/09/2025 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 16/10/2025 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 27/10/2025 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 09/11/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 40% | -0.54 |
| 11/07/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |