IvyArcIvyArc
1

Last Game Lady

5yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 74

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance · 1f 130y

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 13/05/2024 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 1f110y Fas 12613/05C8C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 25/06/2024 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 63 · 1f130y Fas 126 · below its mark25/06/2024 · OR 63 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/08/2024 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 64 · 1f110y Fas 126 · beat its mark14/08/2024 · OR 64 par14/08C5OR 64C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 27/08/2024 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 61 · 1f130y Fas 126 · beat its mark27/08/2024 · OR 61 parBHA66 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 03/10/2024 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 66 · 1f180y Fas 126 · below its mark03/10/2024 · OR 66 par3/1066OR 66BHA69 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 26/10/2024 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 69 · 1f180y Fas 126 · beat its mark26/10/2024 · OR 69 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/11/2024 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 76 · 1f130y Gd 126 · beat its mark06/11/2024 · OR 76 par6/11C5OR 76C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 78 · 1f130y 128 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 78 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 09/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 77 · 1f80y 128 · below its mark09/07/2026 · OR 77 par9/07C5OR 77projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-09Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th6th0
2026-06-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2024-11-06Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2024-10-26Horseshoe IndianapolisBHA692nd4th−2
2024-10-03Horseshoe IndianapolisBHA664th6th−2
2024-08-27Horseshoe Indianapolis?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0527/086/119/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength38%

Delivery trend -1.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/05/20243rd16/116%78%+0.62
25/06/20247th5/174%25%-0.49
14/08/20248th9/153%13%-0.40
27/08/20247th16/116%25%+0.09
03/10/20244th25/10%63%+0.63
26/10/20242nd20/10%89%+0.89
06/11/20243rd13/891%78%-0.14
11/06/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
09/07/20266th9/276%38%-0.39