Rock Hard Love
5yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 79
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance · 1f 130y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-07-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2024 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/04/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 21/05/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 10/07/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 07/08/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 13/11/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |