11
Sauce C
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 73
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance · 1f 130y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
Delivery trend -12.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |