3
Aquitain
4yo Gelding · 8-13
La Teste De Buch · Prix Stoa Stakes · 1m 1f 97y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | La Teste De Buch | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Tarbes | 4 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-08-05 | La Teste De Buch | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | La Teste De Buch | 3 | 14th | 15th | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength50%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02/2026 | 16th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 16/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 08/05/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 03/06/2026 | 14th | 4/1 | 79% | 13% | -0.66 |
| 05/07/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |