5
Maneki
4yo Colt · 8-13
La Teste De Buch · Prix Stoa Stakes · 1m 1f 97y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
32%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Chantilly | 1 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Toulouse | 1 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 1 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-09-12 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-07-31 | Dax | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -8.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/2025 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 29/04/2025 | 5th | 5/6 | 96% | 20% | -0.76 |
| 05/06/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 31/07/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 12/09/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 14% | -0.28 |
| 01/02/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/02/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 78% | -0.14 |
| 19/04/2026 | 9th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 14/06/2026 | 14th | 11/2 | 71% | 24% | -0.48 |