Morgan Bay
4yo Filly · 8-8
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Haras Du Mazet Stakes · 6f 211y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Deauville | 2 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 12th | 9th | +2 |
| 2025-10-03 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 4th | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 13/09/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 03/10/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 19/10/2025 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 15/03/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 14/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 16/08/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |