3
Mr Fleurant
5yo Gelding · 9-4
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Haras Du Mazet Stakes · 6f 211y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | La Teste De Buch | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 2 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-06 | Toulouse | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-23 | Pau | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-10 | Machecoul | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 53% | -0.15 |
| 09/12/2025 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 29% | +0.23 |
| 16/01/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 10/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 23/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 06/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 79% | +0.10 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 73% | +0.68 |